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[予想]有馬記念は「陽水トリビュート」?

去年の菊花賞から、ずっと、勝ちあぐねてきた素質馬ゼンノロブロイが、今秋、天皇賞秋(G1)を見事に勝って、続く、ジャパンC(G1)を連勝。歴戦の疲れが心配されもするが、もはや、軽く平気な顔をして、あっさり物事を成し遂げてしまう風格めいたものまで、感じてしまう。よって、迷わず、本命。ここまで、ずっと、買い続けて来て、ここで、買わない理由はない。

3連単は、「競馬と陽水とStevieに溺れる日々」と掲げる当Blogを運営する私にとって、ビッグなニュースだった「い(1)のうえよ(4)うすいト(10)リビュート」アルバムの発売から、1-4-10(笑)。急遽、有馬記念前日の25日に、NHK「井上陽水 空想ハイウェイ」のACT3が放映になるというのも、怪しい。(怪しいか?)
でも、
1ゼンノロブロイ(ペリエ)
4コスモバルク(五十嵐冬)
10デルタブルース(ボニヤ)

という組合わせは、そんな、こじつけなしにでも、実は、枠順決まる前から買ってみたいと思っていた実力馬達。

前日発売では、3連単1-4-10は、なんと、一番人気で25.1倍。もしかしたら、「冬のソナタ」のペ・ヨンジュン(ペリエ、4、10)とかで、買ってる人、一杯いるのか?。でも、私に、言わせれば、これは、「井上陽水トリビュート」ですから。世間的には、ちょっと、弱いかもしれませんけれど。ま、単勝一番人気(2.2倍)、二番人気(6.1倍)、三番人気(8.5倍)の組合わせだから、これが売れるのは、不思議でも何でもないか。

参考他blog記事:馬券日記 オケラセラ@馬耳東風: 有馬記念枠順確定 ペ・ヨンジュン馬券は炸裂するか!?

ま、ゼンノロブロイにしたら、4コスモバルクや10デルタブルースとの現段階での勝負付けは前走のジャパンカップ(G1)の三馬身差完勝という事で、済んでしまっている気がする。舞台が変れど、これらの馬に脚を掬われる事は、あまり考えられない。

むしろ、これから、超える事が求められる格上の二頭は、自身が本格化前とは言え、今年の宝塚記念で、完膚無きまでに、やられてしまった9タップダンスシチーと、去年の春シーズン、人気薄で、天皇賞(春)、宝塚記念のG1二戦を鮮烈なミラクル捲くり勝ちしてみせたヒシミラクル。これらと、がっぷり四つに戦って、なおかつ、勝ってこそ、いよいよ、超一流の称号を戴冠できようというもの。実はまだ、かつての、勝ちあぐねている頃のイメージが強くて、ここ二戦の強い勝ち方を見ても、何か、安心できない私。(同じく宝塚記念で、先着された、6シルクフェイマス(四位)には、天皇賞(秋)で、完璧にやっつけたから良しとする。でも、この時は、あちらが、本調子になかったみたいなのだが。)

肝腎のタップダンスシチーの状態が、絶好調ではなさそうなのが残念。是非とも、タップダンスシチーが強い競馬をして、なおかつ、サンデーサイレンスの産駒のゼンノロブロイがすぱっと、抜け出し、「タップダンスシチーは、非サンデーを連れて来る」法則(*)に、見事な横穴を開けてくれるのを見てみたいのだけれど。


(*)タップダンスシチーの作り出す早い流れと底力勝負のレースは、終いの切れ味を本分とするサンデーサイレンス産駒には苦手なものとなる。結果、タップダンスシチーが好走し、連に絡んだレースの相手には、必ず非サンデーサイレンスの産駒がやってきているという法則。今年の宝塚記念の前、あちこちの競馬blogでなされていた、タップダンスシチーの戦歴の分析からきた指摘。最近の記事だと、(そのまま、そのままっ!!: 【有馬記念考察】サンデーの天敵、再び登場)さんが、説得力ある考察をなされてました。

ヒシミラクルのミラクル先行まくりも、前走ジャパンカップの四角の様子を見ると、うーん、そろそろという気がしないでもないが、どうなんだろう。

いつか、ゼンノロブロイ-ヒシミラクル-タップダンスシチーの壮絶な底力勝負を見てみたいと思いつつ、今回は、基本的に、ゼンノロブロイvs三歳勢の勝負と読んで印は、素直に「井上陽水トリビュート」の順に付けてみた。

◎1ゼンノロブロイ(ペリエ):普通に力を出しきれば、結果はついて来る。迷わず単勝。
○4コスモバルク(五十嵐冬):今年、一年、地方競馬所属で中央に挑戦という事で、数々の名勝負を演じてきた。これまで、何度も舌を巻くタフネスさを見せられて、ここでも。
▲10デルタブルース(ボニヤ):強い菊花賞馬。この秋、五戦目と使い込んでるのがどうかと思うが。

△9タップダンスシチー(佐藤哲):100%本調子じゃなくともやっぱり実力馬だし。
△14コイントス(岡部):一昨年、買い損ねて、シンボリクリスエス、タップダンスシチー(当時、人気なかった)との3連複万馬券を取り逃がした悔しい記憶。前走福島記念(G3)でおちゃめな出遅れをやってくれたが、まともに、走れば一昨年の再現も?。
△8ダイタクバートラム(武豊):前走ステイヤーズSは強かった。鞍上、武豊だし。

以下、無印だけど、気になるのは、
 13ツルマルボーイ(蝦名):天皇賞秋(G1)四着から、じっくり休んで狙い済ましたような臨戦過程が無気味。
 5ハーツクライ(横山典):填まれば二着はあるかも。
 11ヒシミラクル(角田):ミラクルは来春の天皇賞(春)あたり、かも知れぬが。

そして、切り。(修行が足りないので、「キルトクール」と言うのは、まだ、恥ずかしい。)
切:15アドマイヤドン(安藤勝)。「キングカメハメハなら発言」(**)以来、逃げてしまったかのような気がする鞍上の勝負運。土曜日のラジオ短波2歳Sは、一番人気ローゼンクロイツで前を行く武豊のヴァーミリアンを捕まえられず二着。しかし、他のレースではちょこちょこと勝ってるし、少しずつ、ツキも戻りつつあるような気も。だが、本当に良くなるのは、年が変ってからと読んで、ここでは無視。馬は小さな体で頑張り屋さんなんだけど。久しぶりの芝で、ボケかけてたドンがまた目覚めてしまう事を危惧しつつも無視。2500mも、多分、ちょっと、距離が長い、って事で、ヨロシク!


(**)ジャパンカップで、三着になったデルタブルースに乗っていた安藤勝巳騎手が、「キングカメハメハがいたら楽に勝っていたね」(ニッカンスポーツより)と言ったという話。(参考記事:readkeiba.blog/競馬・読む・見る・書く・・・:言ってくれるな、アンカツさん。)

買い目はいつも通り、3連単で六通り。
1-4-10(◎-○-▲:「井上陽水トリビュート」馬券。1ゼンノロブロイ-4コスモバルク-10デルタブルース)
1-10-4(◎-▲-○:「井上陽水トリビュート」馬券変形。菊花賞馬10デルタブルースが抜け出した所を、1ゼンノロブロイが捉える。4コスモバルクは闘志を見せて激しく三着に追いすがる)
1-9-14(◎-△-△:一昨年、取り損ねた夢よもう一度馬券。大逃げを売った9タップダンスシチーが逃げ込む所、シンボリクリスエスならぬ1ゼンノロブロイが只一頭、凄まじい末脚を発揮して差し切る。三着に14コイントス。三歳馬は総崩れ。)
1-13-8(◎-無-△:先行馬総崩れ馬券。唯一頭、抜け出す1ゼンノロブロイ。離れた二三着争いが直線一気に掛けた13ツルマルボーイと8ダイタクバートラム。)
1-5-8(◎-無-△:先行馬総崩れ馬券2。唯一頭、抜け出す1ゼンノロブロイ。離れた二三着争いが直線一気に掛けた5ハーツクライと8ダイタクバートラム。)
1-11-9(◎-無-△:ミラクルはここだったか馬券。9タップダンスシチーが作った厳しい流れを11ヒシミラクルが捲くり、なおかつ、1ゼンノロブロイが抜け出すという常識外れの夢馬券。)

って、1ゼンノロブロイが一着という事以外は、印の意味が殆どないという、なんとも、首尾一貫しないバラバラな買い方。ま、たまには、いいんじゃないか。こんなのも。六通りの夢を買うって事で。

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Listed below are links to weblogs that reference [予想]有馬記念は「陽水トリビュート」?:

» 【予想】有馬記念 [飛鏡新聞]
第49回有馬記念(G1 中山競馬場)が26日に行われる。ゼンノロブロイによる天皇賞(秋)、ジャパンカップに続いてのG1での3連勝はなるのか。引退宣言を撤回したタ... [Read More]

Tracked on Sunday, December 26, 2004 at 12:18 AM

» 中山:有馬記念 [こんな馬券を買った。]
有馬記念 キルトクールはコスモバルク。◎は・・・ゼンノロブロイで仕方ないよね・・・ みなさんのブログ予想本命馬も収集掲載しています。 [Read More]

Tracked on Sunday, December 26, 2004 at 12:58 AM

» 【有馬記念】有力各馬考課表「○と×」 [そのまま、そのままっ!!]
天皇賞(秋)・ジャパンカップと爆発的な瞬発力で他を圧倒してきた王者ゼンノロブロイ。もし、ここも勝てるようだと、年度代表馬と2億円ボーナスという名実ともども最強馬... [Read More]

Tracked on Sunday, December 26, 2004 at 01:30 AM

» 有馬記念(GI)予想 [週刊競馬凹]
■有馬記念(GI) (26日、中山、3歳上OP、定量、芝2500m) 枠 馬 馬 名 性齢 斥量 騎 手 調教師 1 1 ゼン... [Read More]

Tracked on Sunday, December 26, 2004 at 01:32 AM

» 有馬記念予想 [nonnnonnnohibi]
第49回有馬記念(G1)予想 1枠1番ゼンノロブロイ 3枠4番コスモバルク 6枠10デルタブルース の馬連ボックスでどうでしょうか、、、 つい... [Read More]

Tracked on Sunday, December 26, 2004 at 01:47 AM

» 4戦連続の本命デルタブルース 有馬記念 [おいちゃんの落書き]
有馬記念 中山競馬場 芝2500 内回り 良馬場想定 九十九里・菊花賞・JC・そして有馬記念と4戦連続デルタブルース本命でいきます、馬に不安は無いのですが難し... [Read More]

Tracked on Sunday, December 26, 2004 at 01:57 AM

» 有馬記念@今週の買ってはいけない [どろ沼]
SPAT4で破綻しました。全日本2歳優駿、名古屋GP、報知オールスターCで全敗したのが効いた…残高30円ですよ。東京大賞典買うためにもココは当てないと。 ◎デル... [Read More]

Tracked on Sunday, December 26, 2004 at 01:57 AM

» 有馬を韓流で予想 [ラリーズクラブ]
第127回中山大障害、優勝は6枠9番も前付けインからの逃げを決めたメルシータカオー。2着には大外枠からメジロオーモンドが、1番枠もコース取られたマイネルオーパー... [Read More]

Tracked on Sunday, December 26, 2004 at 04:17 AM

» 悼尾・有馬記念予想 [競馬ニュース的ブログ]
■第49回有馬記念(G1)3歳上(混)(指)定量 芝2500m 木曜日の「燃えない有馬」で書いたとおり折角のファン投票があるのに上位馬が出走しないというのはな... [Read More]

Tracked on Sunday, December 26, 2004 at 07:25 AM

» 有馬記念 [Dance!Dance!Dance!]
マイネル軍団の総帥の岡田氏って。。。なんか感じが。。。やっぱり馬主ってがんがん注文するもんですかねえ。あんまり表立って聞こえてこないだけで。さて、予想。結局3歳... [Read More]

Tracked on Sunday, December 26, 2004 at 08:44 AM

» 第49回 有馬記念予想 [JRA攻略百年構想]
◎アドマイヤドン ○ヒシミラクル ▲コスモバルク △コイントス [Read More]

Tracked on Sunday, December 26, 2004 at 08:50 AM

» 有馬記念最終見解 [ 未来日記 kota☆]
秋の中山競馬場にも日本ダービーに匹敵する、 大レースの創設を提案した【有馬理事長】の功績を称え、 中山グランプリから有馬記念に改称された。 この有馬記... [Read More]

Tracked on Sunday, December 26, 2004 at 11:15 AM

» コイントスと心中決定!! [+ My dream begin +]
【人気馬を切った理由はこちら】 ↑買い目、予想が詳しく載ってます。  そろそろ当たらない予想披露しますか〜!!ある意味参考にしてくださいw(馬名の右の数字は3... [Read More]

Tracked on Sunday, December 26, 2004 at 11:50 AM

» 有馬記念 予想 [役に立たない?競馬分析blog]
仮想競馬(ウイニングポスト)にトリップしていて、予想がすすみませんでした。 でも、大一番・有馬記念ですから、久々に予想記事を。 不確定要素が一杯ですね。 コスモ... [Read More]

Tracked on Sunday, December 26, 2004 at 12:10 PM

» こいつはポイ(/・ω・)/ ⌒ 1 有馬記念編 [打ちつづけるハズレ券散りつづける]
来られまくったら顔を晒しますというルールで、来ない馬を予想してみるシリーズ第12弾。 くはは。中山大障害では「切 マイネルオーパー」がちゃっかり3着でした... [Read More]

Tracked on Sunday, December 26, 2004 at 12:19 PM

» 第49回有馬記念の予想 ◎ゼンノロブロイ [readkeiba.blog/競馬・読む・見る・書く・・・]
なんだかんだで現在の中長距離路線の最強クラスが全部出てきた。日本一を決めるにふさわしいメンバーだと思う。 ◎ゼンノロブロイ 昨年のシンボリクリスエスと比較され無... [Read More]

Tracked on Sunday, December 26, 2004 at 12:33 PM

» 第49回有馬記念(GI) [受験生の日記帳]
2004年12月26日(日)中山・15:25発走 第49回有馬記念(GI) 芝・ [Read More]

Tracked on Sunday, December 26, 2004 at 01:09 PM

» 日曜(有馬記念)の展望★&願望 [ありりんの競馬ブログ]
いよいよ明日は有馬記念☆彡 冷静な判断はできないので、本日の展望はいつも以上にあてになりません・・・。 一番人気のゼンノロブロイは確かに秋天を勝って自信がつき... [Read More]

Tracked on Sunday, December 26, 2004 at 08:29 PM

» ロブロイとタップが10億円馬に [ラリーズクラブ]
有馬記念は○ゼンノロブロイ→△タップダンスシチーの実力馬2頭と4様&皇室枠の▲シルクフェイマスで決まり、馬券はタテ目ワイドと1.3着の複勝を回収したっていうじゃ... [Read More]

Tracked on Sunday, December 26, 2004 at 09:10 PM

» 馬! 有馬記念のよそー [雪虎蹴馬笑!]
いよいよ、オーラス有馬記念!  ◎ ゼンノロブロイ    もう逆らいません、あんたが主役!  ○ ツルマルボーイ   余裕のローテ、中山でも届く!  ... [Read More]

Tracked on Sunday, December 26, 2004 at 10:55 PM

» デルタブルース惨敗 [さいとうくんのニュース速報!?]
有馬記念が開催されました! 本誌(本ブログ?)の予想デルタブルースは五着の惨敗(... [Read More]

Tracked on Monday, December 27, 2004 at 12:27 AM

» 今年の夢の総決算!わちきの金を返せ!有馬記念予想! [キルトクールブログ]
今年も、一年がんばって馬券を買いました! 今年もいっぱい負けました。。。○| ̄| それでも、今日の有馬記念!また馬券を買うでしょう! 夢を買うために。。。 ... [Read More]

Tracked on Monday, December 27, 2004 at 11:45 PM

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