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[予想]安田記念(G1)。もう言い訳なしでお願い、◎ダンスインザムード。

ま、これまでのスタンス通りに、◎ダンスインザムードな訳だが、正直、分が悪い感じ。サイレントウィットネスを初めとする香港からの三頭に、武豊のアドマイヤマックス、更に府中得意のテレグノシスと、強そうな連中に混じって、どこまで、やれるものか。

実際、前走、京王杯SCは、情けなかった。後方の侭、直線、伸びるかと思いきや不発で9着。休み明けで、距離不足と、一応、言い訳は立つのだけれど、牡馬G1馬のテレグノシスやアドマイヤマックスが、前残りの不向きな流れでも、しっかり、3着、4着にまで押し上げてきたのに較べると、やはり、物足りない。もう少し、格好はつけて貰いたかったというのが本音。

でも、相変わらず、買い続けてしまうのである。今度は、距離も得意のマイル。コースも、天皇賞(秋)でゼンノロブロイの2着した東京競馬場。スタンド前発走でなく、落ち着いてスタート切れそうだし。旨い事先行して、すいっと、抜け出す、去年の天皇賞(秋)のような本来のパフォーマンスを発揮出来れば、何とかなるんじゃないかという期待。

東京は、昨日、土曜の夕方、どしゃぶりの雨が降った。今日、日曜日は、曇りの予報。午後から降るとか言ってるけど、良く判らない。でも、きっと、内が残る馬場だよ、と、ダンスインザムードに都合の良い状況を夢想する私。今週からCコースからAコースに変った事もあるし。でも、そんな事は、みんな判っているので、自ずと厳しくなる先手争いに、旨く対応していけるのか。肉弾戦になった場合、それを跳ね返す強さがあるかどうか、ちと、不安ではあるけれど。

で、前日の前売りオッズを見てみたら、
3ダイワメジャー  6.0倍
13アドマイヤマックス 7.1倍
5ダンスインザムード 7.4倍
17テレグノシス 7.5倍
18ハットトリック 8.5倍
12サイレントウィットネス 10.2倍
7アサクサデンエン 14.4倍
16ブリッシュラック 14.9倍

見事に本命不在の様相を呈する中でも、ダンスインザムードは、一応、3番人気に支持されている。

デュランダルでもなきゃ差してこれないよ馬場になる事を予測して、相手は、先行馬出来る馬へ総流し。サイレントウィットネスにアサクサデンエン。ローエングリンにバランスオブゲーム。更にダイワメジャー、オレハマッテルゼにユートピア。これ位、抑えれば良いかな。多すぎか?。

前走の京王杯SCを見る限りでは、ダンスインザムードより、断然、たくましい牡馬のテレグノシス、アドマイヤマックスも、香港チャンピオンズマイルを制し、この安田記念も勝てば100万ドルのボーナスを手にする事になる香港のブリッシュラックも、思い切って切り。ブリッシュラックは、去年、ダンスインザムードが13着と大敗した2000mの国際GI香港Cで2着するなど、相当、タフネスさが伺える馬であるが、追い込むも届かず、という事で宜しくお願いしたい。香港C14着と全然、駄目だったダンスインザムードの更に後塵を拝したボウマンズクロッシングは、無視して良さそう。

で、印。

◎5ダンスインザムード(デザーモ):頼むよ。
○12サイレントウィットネス(コーツィ):距離がぎりぎりな感じもあるが香港のスーパースター。カルストンライトオもついていけないダッシュ力で先に付けて、粘り込めば。
▲6ローエングリン(後藤):多分、逃げるんじゃないかと思うが、今の後藤騎手なら、旨くやれるんじゃないかと思う。

以下は、これまで述べてきた事に反するけど、やっぱり切れない二頭。
△17テレグノシス(勝浦)
△13アドマイヤマックス(武豊)

 8バランスオブゲーム(田中勝)
 3ダイワメジャー(柴田善)
 4オレハマッテルゼ(蛯名)
 7アサクサデンエン(藤田)
 14ユートピア(安藤勝)
当たりは、まだ迷いつつも、そう沢山、印を付ける訳にはいかず。
キルトクールは、18ハットトリック(四位)。嵌れば切れるけど、今回は嵌らずという事で。

|

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» ポワロの安田記念 [Slopfreak 競馬・逃げ一杯]
ヘイスティングスはラジオを切った。 「人気は割れてますね。午前中は一番人気はハットトリックだったのに、今はダイワメジャーですよ。外車{香港勢3頭)はあまり人気は上がってないようです・・・僕は皐月賞馬ダイワメジャーと高松宮記念勝馬アドマイヤマックスを外して考えます。不器用だから距離に合わせられないでしょう。ダンスインザムード、テレグノシスとハットトリックの馬連ボックスを買います。三連複は無理なレースですよ。」 ポワロはいつもの癖で、ふふんと髭をなぜた。 「単勝人気を見ればわかるように... [Read More]

Tracked on Sunday, June 05, 2005 at 10:49 AM

» 安田記念 予想 [the borderland]
昨年はグリーンベルトが出来るから前に行く馬でローエングリン◎にしたのだけど、結果はペースが速くなって、差し馬で決着。今年も同じパターンなんだけど、馬場状態が非常に気になる悪くなるようだと前にいける方が良いよね、最後まで見極めが難しそうです。 東京でもう一花咲かせろ、テレグノシス◎ 東京なら確実に伸びてくる、G1勝つとしたら今年のこのレースがラストチャンスでしょう。前哨戦で勝つと本番来ないので、今回は買い。男になれ勝浦! 人気が割れてる時こそ武豊の腕に期待、アドマイヤマックス○ 昨年は... [Read More]

Tracked on Sunday, June 05, 2005 at 11:10 AM

» 安田記念@今週の買ってはいけない [どろ沼]
◎ブリッシュラック ○テレグノシス ▲ハットトリック △カンパニー △サイレントウィットネス △ボウマンズクロッシング ◎ブリッシュラックはチャンピオンズマイルの勝ち馬。このレースでサイレントウィット... [Read More]

Tracked on Sunday, June 05, 2005 at 01:53 PM

» 見れるか?That'sアメリカン競馬!安田記念予想! [キルトクールブログ]
Aコースに変わり、内の2〜3頭分がグリーンベルトになり、さらに前日の雨で内側にある排水溝のせいで、さらに内が有利。 しかし、単純に逃げ馬有利かといえばそんなこともない。 なんせ、逃げ先行馬がうじゃうじゃいるのだ! このグリーンベルトを目指し、逃げ先行馬は早め..... [Read More]

Tracked on Sunday, June 05, 2005 at 11:32 PM

» 第46回宝塚記念(GI) [待て、しかして希望せよ!]
2005年6月26日(日) 阪神11R 15:40発走 第46回宝塚記念(GI) [Read More]

Tracked on Sunday, June 26, 2005 at 02:08 AM

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